{ "checked_on": "2026-10-08", "description": "Manually transcribed published aggregate statistics, not game-level microdata. Charts reproduce aggregates; no causal effects or significance tests are estimated.", "sources": { "gdco_june": "https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/who-won-june-2026s-steam-next-fest", "htmag_benchmark": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2025/03/26/benchmarks-how-many-wishlists-can-i-get-from-steam-next-fest/", "htmag_momentum": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2026/07/14/games-that-used-momentum-for-steam-next-fest-success/", "htmag_june": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2026/07/13/did-ai-slop-ruin-steam-next-fest-june-2026/" }, "supply": { "source": "gdco_june", "editions": ["2025-06", "2026-06"], "demo_count": [2645, 4382], "follower_gain_at_top_10_percent_position": [163, 121], "note": "Follower gain is not wishlist gain; these are comparable rank positions, not a longitudinal panel of the same games. The source describes the position as a game in the top 10%." }, "february_2026_benchmark": { "source": "htmag_benchmark", "responses_received": 182, "table_n": 174, "momentum_followup_responses": 81, "note": "URL retains a 2025 date; the current article explicitly uses February 2026 survey data. P30-P70 covers the middle 40% of observations, not a confidence interval. Self-selected survey, no population weighting.", "groups": [ {"base": "0–999", "n": 71, "minimum": 41, "p30": 179, "median": 322, "p70": 485, "maximum": 5880}, {"base": "1,000–9,999", "n": 60, "minimum": 74, "p30": 549, "median": 1006, "p70": 1722, "maximum": 15614}, {"base": "10,000–99,999", "n": 36, "minimum": 515, "p30": 2584, "median": 5215, "p70": 9633, "maximum": 17342}, {"base": "100,000+", "n": 7, "minimum": 5990, "p30": 9989, "median": 12882, "p70": 27661, "maximum": 57074} ] }, "june_2026_correlations": { "source": "htmag_momentum", "survey_responses_reported_in_companion_article": 119, "complete_case_n_for_each_coefficient": null, "outcome": "Wishlists gained during Steam Next Fest", "base_definition": "Wishlists before Steam Next Fest", "momentum_definition": "Wishlists gained June 1–14, 2026", "rows": [ {"statistic": "Pearson r (raw)", "base": 0.47, "momentum": 0.61}, {"statistic": "Spearman rho", "base": 0.76, "momentum": 0.81}, {"statistic": "Pearson r (log-log)", "base": 0.76, "momentum": 0.80} ], "note": "Published coefficients only. Raw paired observations, per-coefficient complete-case sample sizes, uncertainty intervals and tests of differences were not provided in the displayed table. Do not treat point differences as established significant effects." }, "june_2026_contingency": { "source": "htmag_momentum", "outcome": "At least 3,000 wishlists gained during SNF", "groups": [ {"base": "<2000", "momentum": "<2000", "successes": 3, "n": 47}, {"base": "<2000", "momentum": ">2000", "successes": 1, "n": 1}, {"base": ">2000", "momentum": "<2000", "successes": 10, "n": 37}, {"base": ">2000", "momentum": ">2000", "successes": 28, "n": 34} ], "note": "Exact inequality labels retained from source; treatment of values exactly 2000 is unspecified. Cell counts sum to 119. The 1/1 cell cannot support a reliable population success probability." }, "case_sources": { "parcel": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2025/08/26/the-demo-effect-from-7000-wishlists-to-42000/", "beast": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2024/06/18/the-double-jump-trick-to-steam-next-fest/", "feb_analysis": "https://howtomarketagame.com/2026/04/13/making-sense-of-the-february-2026-steam-next-fest/" }, "cases": [ { "game": "Parcel Simulator", "edition": "2025-02", "source": "parcel", "wishlist_before_demo_approx": 7000, "festival_wishlist_additions_approx": 10000, "festival_peak_ccu_approx": 300, "private_testers_approx": 15, "creator_coverage_wishlist_additions_developer_estimate": 7000, "wishlists_at_june_20_release_approx": 42000, "units_sold_first_24_hours_approx": 10000, "units_sold_first_two_weeks_approx": 50000, "note": "Sales are subsequent release-period outcomes. Exact initial demo release day is inconsistent between the source timeline and developer quote, so the article uses near the festival." }, { "game": "I Am Your Beast", "edition": "2024-06", "source": "beast", "wishlist_additions_24_hours_before_festival_approx": 15000, "wishlist_additions_festival_first_24_hours_approx": 16000, "combined_48_hours_approx": 31000, "note": "Two different periods, not 31,000 festival-only additions. Original 2024 interview is used instead of the later July 2026 retelling." }, { "game": "Cat Mail Co.", "edition": "2026-06", "source": "htmag_momentum", "wishlists_at_entry": 5293, "festival_wishlist_additions_approx": 42000 }, { "game": "Speak", "edition": "2026-06", "source": "htmag_momentum", "wishlists_at_entry": 694, "festival_wishlist_additions_approx": 13000, "tiktok_views_approx": 1000000 }, { "game": "Ship Shaper", "edition": "2026-02", "source": "feb_analysis", "announcement_wishlist_additions_approx": 5000, "festival_wishlist_additions": 11566, "peak_demo_rank": 27, "later_demo_rank_range": [ 60, 70 ] } ], "butterscotch_comparison": { "source": "feb_analysis", "note": "Impressions and visits are festival-source traffic; wishlist additions are festival-period totals. Do not divide the third by the second as a measured funnel conversion.", "games": [ { "game": "Crashlands 2", "edition": "2024-06", "festival_impressions": 6247962, "festival_visits": 38406, "festival_period_wishlist_additions": 15987 }, { "game": "How Many Dudes?", "edition": "2026-02", "festival_impressions": 645745, "festival_visits": 15342, "festival_period_wishlist_additions": 14740 } ], "calculated_impressions_ratio": 9.675587112559912, "calculated_wishlist_difference": 1247 }, "images": [ { "game": "Parcel Simulator", "file": "images/steam-next-fest-research-2026/04-parcel-simulator.jpg", "source": "https://store.steampowered.com/app/2424010/", "asset_url": "https://shared.akamai.steamstatic.com/store_item_assets/steam/apps/2424010/ss_d88fe3f3a0697a577b74f364f0e70dc702de0335.1920x1080.jpg?t=1790152453", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-08", "dimensions": [ 1920, 1080 ], "note": "Current official store screenshot illustrating gameplay; not an archived Next Fest demo capture." }, { "game": "I Am Your Beast", "file": "images/steam-next-fest-research-2026/05-i-am-your-beast.jpg", "source": "https://store.steampowered.com/app/1876590/", "asset_url": "https://shared.akamai.steamstatic.com/store_item_assets/steam/apps/1876590/ss_476b39aed95cbe566fadcc9b26fc50ae4e8ab6b9.1920x1080.jpg?t=1776695015", "retrieved_on": "2026-10-08", "dimensions": [ 1920, 1079 ], "note": "Current official store screenshot illustrating gameplay; not an archived Next Fest demo capture." } ] }